Refineries sector emissions reported to the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP) emissions reported by the refineries sector remained relatively consistent constant from 2011 to 2019, followed by a significant drop of nearly 10% in reported emissions in 2020 due to reduced demand during the COVID-19 pandemic shutdowns. A rebound in production and associated emissions began in 2021, with emissions increasing by nearly 3% roughly 2% to 164.9 4 MMT CO₂e from the record low emissions reported to the GHGRP in 2020. In 2022, emissions from refineries decreased by 0.5% compared to 2021 levels, to a total of 163.4 MMT CO₂e from 164.4 MMT CO₂e.

Historically, refinery emissions trends depend on are influenced by three key factors: the number of operating refineries, the operable capacity, and the production slate. With respect to the number of reporting facilities, the count has decreased from 150 to 137 135 over the last decade because some refineries closed and a few very . This is the result of refinery closures and the fact that several small refineries are no longer required to report. [1] Notably, in 2021, a large refinery in Belle Chase, Louisiana operated by Phillips 66 closed in 2021 due to weather related effects of Hurricane Ida, while two new smaller refineries in Texas and California came online. [2] The With several announced closures schedule to take effect in the coming years, the number of refineries reporting to the GHGRP is expected to continue to decrease in the next few years. [2]

With respect to operable capacity, we found that overall operable capacity (measured in thousand barrels per calendar day) has , overall levels have increased by almost 2% over the last decade. [3] Over the last two yearsFrom 2019 to 2022, however, there has been a decrease in operable capacity of nearly more than 4%. So, while While the decades-long trend demonstrates that the expanded production capacity at existing and new refineries more than offsets production declines from refinery closures, the trend may be turning toward a sustained nationwide decline in operating capacity as a result of due to factors driving refinery closures, such as the expected shift toward electric vehicles and the increasing use of renewable fuels.

Finally, finished motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, and jet fuel are the predominant fuels produced by refineries. During 2020, changes to refinery production slates were observed that are were likely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Notably, the demand for transportation fuels, specifically fuels—specifically finished motor gasoline and jet fuel, fuel—decreased significantly decreased in 2020. As a consequence of the decreased production of finished motor gasoline and jet fuel, we observed an increase in normalized emissions result, normalized emissions increased in 2020 (i.e., metric tons CO₂e per gross input to refineries in thousand barrels per day) in 2020 demonstrating production inefficiencies. [3] In From 2021 to 2022, the production of finished motor gasoline (including motor gasoline blend components) and kerosene jet fuel increased by 7% and 28%23.2%, respectively. [4, 5] Distillate oil production remained flat compared to 2020, decreasing by 2%In addition, distillate oil production increased 7% over the period 2021-2022. [4] These overall changes in demand resulted in a net 6% 5% increase in refinery throughput in 2022 compared to 2021 (measured as gross input to refineries in thousand barrels per day) as compared to 2020. [3] The normalized emissions observed in 2021 2022 are consistent with pre-pandemic values, indicating adjustment and stabilization of production processes in response to market conditions.

...

[2] U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. refinery capacity decreased during 2021 for second consecutive year (accessed September 1926, 20222023) at: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=52939.

[3]  U.S. Energy Information Administration, Refinery Utilization and Capacity (accessed September 1926, 20222023) at: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_unc_dcu_nus_a.htm.

[4] U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Refinery Net Production (accessed September 1926, 20222023) at: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_refp2_dc_nus_mbbl_a.htm.

[5]  U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Refinery Net Inputs (accessed September 2826, 20222023) at: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_inpt2_dc_nus_mbbl_a.htm.

...

...