Refineries sector emissions reported to the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program (GHGRP) remained relatively constant from 2011 to 2019, followed by a significant drop of nearly 10% in reported emissions in 2020 due to reduced demand during the COVID-19 pandemic. A rebound in production and associated emissions began in 2021, with emissions increasing by roughly 2% to 164.5 MMT CO₂e from the record low emissions reported to the GHGRP in 2020. In 2023, emissions from refineries decreased by 1.0% compared to 2022 levels, to a total of 162.0 MMT CO₂e from 163.6 MMT CO₂e.

Historically, refinery emissions trends are influenced by three key factors: the number of operating refineries, the operable capacity, and the production slate. With respect to the number of reporting facilities, the count has decreased from 150 to 133 over the last decade. This is the result of refinery closures and the fact that several small refineries are no longer required to report. [1] However, U.S. refining capacity increased in 2023 due to expansions at existing facilities. [2]

With respect to operable capacity (measured in thousand barrels per calendar day), overall levels have increased by 2% over the last decade. [3] From 2019 to 2023, however, there has been a decrease in operable capacity of more than 3%. While the decades-long trend demonstrates that the expanded production capacity at existing and new refineries more than offsets production declines from refinery closures, the trend may be turning toward a sustained nationwide decline in operating capacity due to factors driving refinery closures, such as the expected shift toward electric vehicles and the increasing use of renewable fuels. However, as noted above, the trend did reverse in 2023.

Finally, finished motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, and jet fuel are the predominant fuels produced by refineries. In 2023, the production of finished motor gasoline (including motor gasoline blend components) and kerosene jet fuel decreased by 0.6% and increased by 5.9%, respectively, compared to 2022. [4] In addition, distillate oil production decreased by 2.3% over the period 2022-2023. [4] These overall changes in demand resulted in a net 0.1% increase in refinery throughput in 2023 compared to 2022 (measured as gross input to refineries in thousand barrels per day). [3] 

[1]  40 CFR §98.2(i)(1) and (2) describe provisions under which a facility may discontinue reporting.

[2] U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. refining capacity increased in 2023 with expansions at existing facilities (accessed September 27, 2024) at: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62624.

[3]  U.S. Energy Information Administration, Refinery Utilization and Capacity (accessed September 27, 2024) at: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_unc_dcu_nus_a.htm.

[4] U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Refinery Net Production (accessed September 27, 2024) at: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_refp2_dc_nus_mbbl_a.htm.