Emissions from the supply of petroleum products reported in accordance with 40 CFR part 98 subpart MM are quantified for domestic petroleum refineries as well as importers and exporters of petroleum products. Generally, these emissions fluctuate based on the supply and demand of specific fuels and feedstocks as well as economic conditions.
The emissions from domestic refineries comprise nearly 75% of the total CO2 emissions reported to this sector on an annual average. Until 2020, the emissions from products supplied by petroleum refineries had increased by approximately 17% for the period spanning 2012 to 2019, with emissions of 2,151 million metric tons (MMT) CO2 and 2,513 MMT CO2, respectively. Prior to 2020, production of fuels at domestic refineries increased, which was consistent with the data reported by petroleum refineries to the United States Energy Information Administration (a detailed explanation of refinery trends data is included in FAQ #833 ”What factors influenced the trend in emissions for refineries?”). In 2020, global demand for petroleum products decreased due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which may be reflected in the subpart MM reported data as a decrease in supplied petroleum products. Emissions from products supplied by petroleum refineries in 2020 almost returned to 2012 levels with an emissions total of 2,214 MMT CO2 representing a decrease of 12% from 2019.
Petroleum products can be broadly categorized as transportation fuels and non-transportation products. Transportation fuels include all finished motor gasoline, gasoline blends, oxygenates, and light distillates. The non-transportation products category includes all other products listed in Table MM-1. About two-thirds of the total CO2 emissions from the product supplied by domestic petroleum refineries are from transportation fuels for all reporting years. There is no apparent shift in refinery product slate over the time series (including 2020) considering these broad product categories.
Prior to 2020, the trend of increasing emissions was supported by an increase in demand for both transportation fuels and non-transportation products. These historical increases were attributed to economic growth and specifically to increases in the supply of finished motor gasoline to the transportation sector and associated increases in vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Consistent with historical years, about 66% of the total finished petroleum products consumed in the United States are used in the transportation sector, and nearly half of those products are motor gasoline. [1] However, in contrast with the historical trends, a sharp decrease in demand for petroleum products was noted in all energy sectors in 2020. [1] A particularly sharp decrease in demand for fuel in the transportation sector resulted in a 15% decrease in 2020 compared with 2019. [1] The supply of finished motor vehicle gasoline for 2020 was recorded as 8,049 thousand barrels per day compared to 9,309 thousand barrels per day in 2019. [2] The decrease in motor vehicle gasoline supply is consistent with the decrease in the annual VMT, which decreased from 3,260 billion VMT in 2019 to 2,830 billion VMT in 2020, a 13% decrease.[3]
The emissions reported to subpart MM by importers has remained relatively flat between 2012 and 2020, while emissions from exporters consistently increased over the time series until 2020. In 2020, emissions from exporters decreased by 7% as compared to the 2019 emissions. The lower 2020 emissions from exports is the result of decreased global demand, which was estimated to have decreased by 9% in 2020, for liquid fossil fuels due to the COVID-19 pandemic. [4]
[1] U.S. Energy Information Administration, Today in Energy, August 5, 2021, accessed September 2021, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49016
[2] U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline, accessed September 2021, available at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mgfupus2&f=a.
[3] U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Traffic Volume Trends, Series 2012 and 2020, accessed September 20, 2021, available at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel_monitoring/tvt.cfm.
[4] U.S. Energy Information Administration, Today in Energy, January 29, 2021, accessed September 2021, https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46596