Emissions from the supply of petroleum products reported in accordance with 40 CFR part 98 subpart MM are quantified for domestic petroleum refineries as well as importers and exporters of petroleum products. Generally, these emissions fluctuate based on the supply and demand of specific fuels and feedstocks as well as economic conditions.
The emissions from domestic refineries comprise an annual average of 75% of the total CO2 emissions reported to this sector. The emissions from products supplied by petroleum refineries have increased by approximately 17% for the period spanning RY 2012 to RY 2019, with emissions of 2,151 million metric tons (MMT) CO2 and 2,512 MMT CO2, respectively. This trend indicates increasing production of fuels at domestic refineries which is consistent with the data reported by petroleum refineries to the United States Energy Information Administration (a detailed explanation of refinery trends data is included in Emission Trends in Petroleum Refineries).
Petroleum products can be broadly categorized as transportation fuels and non-transportation products. Transportation fuels include all finished motor gasoline, gasoline blends, oxygenates, and light distillates. The non-transportation products category includes all other products listed in Table MM-1. About two-thirds of the total CO2 emissions from the product supplied by domestic petroleum refineries are from transportation fuels. There is no apparent shift in refinery product slate over the time series considering these broad product categories.
The increase in emissions from products supplied by petroleum refineries is due to increased demand for both transportation fuels and non-transportation products. Increases in the demand for transportation and non-transportation products is likely due to continuing economic growth. The supply of transportation fuels has continued to grow despite some advances in fuel efficiency. About 69% of the total finished petroleum products consumed in the United States are used in the transportation sector, and about half of those products are motor gasoline. [1] The supply of finished motor vehicle gasoline increased from a low of 8,682 thousand barrels per day in 2012 to about 9,310 thousand barrels per day in 2019. [2] The increase in motor vehicle gasoline supply is consistent with the increase in the annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT), which increased from 2,969 billion VMT in 2012 to 3,269 billion VMT in 2019.[3] The VMT increase was likely driven by increases in both population and VMT per capita. The annual VMT per capita increased from about 9,500 VMT per capita in 2012 to about 10,000 VMT per capita in 2019. [3,4] The increase in VMT per capita is likely due to low gasoline prices as well as continuing economic growth.
The emissions reported to subpart MM by importers has remained relatively flat between RY 2012 and RY 2019, while emissions from exports have increased over the same time period. This indicates that some of the increase in domestic refinery product supply is used to meet product demand in other countries. When considering the total emissions from the supply of petroleum products, the exporter emissions are subtracted from the emissions reported by petroleum refineries and importers and tend to offset some of the increased emissions from products supplied by petroleum refineries to the domestic market.
[1] U.S. Energy Information Administration, Today in Energy, June 22, 2020, accessed October 2020, available at https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=44176.
[2] U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline, accessed October 2020, available at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mgfupus2&f=a.
[3] U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Traffic Volume Trends, Series 2012 and 2017, accessed October 12, 2020, available at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel_monitoring/tvt.cfm.
[4] U.S. Census Bureau, National Population Totals and Components of Change: 2010-2019, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2010 to July 1 2019 , Series 2012 and 2017, accessed October 12, 2020, available at https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-national-total.html .