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The emissions from products supplied by domestic refineries comprise nearly 75% of the total CO₂ emissions reported to this sector on an annual average basis. Until the economic downturn in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the emissions from products supplied by petroleum refineries had increased by approximately 17% for the period spanning 2012 to 2019, with emissions of 2,151 million metric tons (MMT) CO₂ and 2,515 MMT CO₂, respectively. In 2020, demand for petroleum products decreased, which we observe in the subpart MM reported data as a decrease in supplied petroleum products and associated emissions which nearly returned to 2012 levels with an emissions total of 2,217 MMT CO₂. Demand for petroleum products increased in 2021 and 2022, with emissions of 2,312 MMT CO₂ and 2,450 MMT CO₂, respectively. In 20212023, the demand for petroleum products began to rebound from 2020 remained relatively constant from 2022 consistent with the data reported by petroleum refineries to the United States Energy Information Administration and the petroleum refinery trends reported under 40 CFR part 98. [1, 2, 3] The subpart MM emissions associated with the quantities of petroleum product supplied and the associated emissions increased by 4% in 2021 from 2020 increased to 2,454 MMT CO₂ in 2023, a 0.2% increase from 2022 levels.

Petroleum products can be broadly categorized as transportation fuels and non-transportation products. Transportation fuels include all finished motor gasoline, gasoline blend stocks, oxygenates, and light distillates. The non-transportation products category includes petrochemical feedstocks, unfinished oils and other petroleum and natural gas liquids. About three quarters of the total CO₂ emissions from the product supplied by domestic petroleum refineries are from transportation fuels. There is no apparent shift in refinery product slate over the time series considering these broad product categories.

Petroleum product emissions trends are largely dependent on domestic and global demand. Except for the economic downturn experienced in 2020 when demand, supply, and reported emissions were at near record lows, historical trends have shown an increasing demand for both transportation fuels and non-transportation products. Specifically, for transportation fuels these trends have been driven by an increase in demand for finished motor gasoline and aviation related fuels utilized for travel and commerce. Indications of economic recovery are seen in the A small increase of the supply of finished motor vehicle gasoline was seen in 20212023, which was recorded as 8,816 945 thousand barrels per day compared to 8,049 810 thousand barrels per day in 2020 2022 (a 10% 1.5% increase). [43] The increase in motor vehicle gasoline supply is consistent with the increase in the annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT), which increased from 23,904 196 billion VMT in 2020 2022 to 3,229 264 billion VMT in 2021, an 11% 2023, a 2.1% increase. [54] The U.S. Energy Information Administration also noted an increase in jet fuel supply consumption and corresponding increase in passengers available seat-miles, a measure of aircraft carrying capacity, as reported by the U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) in 2021 Bureau of Transportation Statistics in 2023 as compared to 20202022. [65]

The subpart MM data indicate that the U.S. has consistently, over the past ten years, exported twice the quantity of petroleum products as it has imported. The data also indicate that imports and exports are evenly split between transportation and non-transportation fuel categories. Similar to the trends for petroleum refineries, the The U.S. Energy Information Administration found that both imports and exports increased in 2021 2023 as compared to 20202022, indicating the beginnings of an economic recovery and an increase in increased demand for petroleum products domestically and globally. [76]

[1]     U.S. Environmental Production Agency,  What influenced the trend in emissions for refineries?, at: <https://ccdsupport.com/confluence/display/ghgp/Emission+Trends+in+Petroleum+Refineries>[2]       U.     U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Refinery Net Production (accessed September 1924, 20222024) at: http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_refp2_dc_nus_mbbl_a.htm.

[32]     U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Refinery Net Input (accessed September 2824, 20222024) at: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_inpt2_dc_nus_mbbl_a.htm.

[43]     U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline, accessed September 20222024, available at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mgfupus2&f=a.

[54]     U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, Traffic Volume Trends, Series 2011 and 20212023, accessed September 2124, 20222024, available at https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel_monitoring/tvt.cfm.

[65]     U.S. Energy Administration, Today in Energy, April 29July 8, 20212024, accessed September 20222024,https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=4775662443 .

[76]     U.S. Energy Information Administration, Today in Energy, April 122, 20222024, accessed September 20222024,https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=5199861703 .

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